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As the Lib Dems kick off the season (The Greens started before, admittedly) I'm wondering: what's the point of it all?
The data first; to put it bluntly, membership rates across the three largest parties is in terminal decline. The graphs below show the declining trend in political party membership, sourced from polling figures held in the House of Commons library:
Unfortunately, comprehensive data was only available until 2008, but according to the most recent available figures compiled by the government (pdf) Tory party revenue from subscriptions has decline by over 70% since Cameron became leader, Labour's coffers have risen by around 6% on average since the last election and the Lib Dems- as expected, have seen a phenomenal 90% decline in subscription revenues since 2010. As a proportion, all the major political parties, even during 'peak seasons' lack the same political attraction as they once did just a few decades ago.
That's what makes the conference season interesting- in my opinion, it's no longer a way to refresh party spirits, or even a forum to exchange ideas. Rather, it seems to be a time in which political parties can assure themselves they're still relevant and necessary. It's very much like any trade show or team-building weekend away : surround yourself with enough people who believe in the franchise, and you'll easily be convinced it will succeed.
No doubt that politicians (and especially student politicians) won't think the same, but I think it might be worth looking at this blog written by LSE's Ingrid Van Biezen, which attempts to display trends in Political party membership across Europe.
Biezen's data presents some interesting findings. First, that regardless of how new, or 'established' a democracy is, subscriptions to party models are still in decline - so low that they fail to actually indicate the "organisational capacity" of such political entities- by extension, that makes it quite difficult to make election predictions in the long run, or asess electoral moods.
Using Electoral Commission data, the website Unlock Democracy have shown how donations to political parties have changed since 2001. You can read the paper here, and I've shown the graph of total donations below:
Sourced at unlockdemocracy.co.uk : unlockdemocracy.co.uk
The graph shows a break down of donors for the major political parties, based on recorded data available. Interestingly, which most of the graph is relatively consistent in terms of breaking down donors, the real dip in individual donations to political parties across the spectrum comes between 2011-12, where the latter figure barely reaches £5,000, 000.
What explains the sudden drop? For starters, its a lack of faith in party leaders, shown in YouGov's leadership approval poll. The poll shows that party leaders across the spectrum have been consistently polling at negative figures with David Cameron leading both Labour and the Liberal Democrats, probably indicating wider public dissaproval about the main 3 parties as a whole.
Second- and more important, is the means in which people see themselves adequately represented. Professor Tony Wright argues that the decline is representative of the new ways people are identified and represenented. Further, he suggests that social media, particularly in relation to elections and conferences, provide a better platform for participation that is taking the place of party membership and traditional politicking.
Regardless, Political Parties are likely to continue being strapped for cash in the years to come until the system begins 'working for them'. An empty phrase I know, but if one of the party leaders can coherently define that term, they might be in a good chance of succeeding sooner than they think.
What explains the sudden drop? For starters, its a lack of faith in party leaders, shown in YouGov's leadership approval poll. The poll shows that party leaders across the spectrum have been consistently polling at negative figures with David Cameron leading both Labour and the Liberal Democrats, probably indicating wider public dissaproval about the main 3 parties as a whole.
Second- and more important, is the means in which people see themselves adequately represented. Professor Tony Wright argues that the decline is representative of the new ways people are identified and represenented. Further, he suggests that social media, particularly in relation to elections and conferences, provide a better platform for participation that is taking the place of party membership and traditional politicking.
Regardless, Political Parties are likely to continue being strapped for cash in the years to come until the system begins 'working for them'. An empty phrase I know, but if one of the party leaders can coherently define that term, they might be in a good chance of succeeding sooner than they think.
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