The ascendancy of the UK Independence Party (UKIP) to an unexpected second place, has rightly left both the Conservatives and Labour disorientated. It wouldn’t be surprising if an all too gleeful Nigel Farage haunts David Cameron at night. Indeed, even Ed Miliband, whose party leads by over ten points in the polls currently, has recently been flirting with some uncharacteristic policies, most notably an in/out referendum on the EU.
If you believe Nigel Farage – and considering his charisma, it would be easy to – it seems like UKIP could become the new king makers of British politics. This assertion has given a new found confidence to UKIP activists. Indeed, talk of ‘quick action’ on immigration and the inhuman
‘Eurocrats’ in Brussels has made the Purple Peril a formidable force to reckon with.
Conventional wisdom from the strategy hacks at Tory HQ suggest the UKIP surge is the inevitable product of Cameron’s modernisation push. As Colonel Bob Stewart, Tory backbencher commented to the BBC, there was “widespread dismay among the rank-and-file about the direction the party was taking and warned the leadership could not afford to ignore their concerns”. To such people, Cameron needs to scrap the fluffy, light touch liberalism that he has attempted to adopt if he’s to win come 2015.
The problem with this analysis is that it rejects what by-elections actually represent. In fact, if Cameron steps back from the advice of strategists and rebel backbenchers he’ll find that UKIP aren’t as threatening as he’d imagine.
Rather, it might be worth Mr Cameron watching the final episode of Charlie Brooker’s Black Mirror series, which aired a few days before the Eastleigh by-election on Channel Four. In the episode, named “The Waldo Moment,” a similar by-election takes place in a fictional town.
Deemed a ‘safe’ Tory seat, the usual candidates crop up: Liam Monroe, the inevitable Conservative winner, Gwendolynn Harris, the career politician and some Lib Dem who no one knows. The twist is that a fourth candidate, Waldo, the foul mouthed, computerised blue bear also runs, throwing a spanner into the inner workings of the political machine.
Waldo’s crude observations of his political opponents immediately make him popular with the electorate. He easily surpasses the Liberal Democrat, and after an appearance at a Question Time-style debate, crushes the Labour candidate too. This isn’t done through better policies (of which Waldo actually says nothing on) but rather in the way he exposes his opponents – as career politicians who believe they’re too good for the public.
Indeed, Waldo’s strengths are not in his capacity to become a better political representative, but a perfect characterisation of ‘anti-politics’.
This isn't too off the mark for UKIP. As Lord Ashcroft’s polling results showed, 83 per cent of those voting UKIP did so as a protest vote. 40 per cent of these voters did so in a practice of tactical voting, while one third of these voters suggested they were likely to vote Tory come 2015. And while some did vote UKIP based on policy, these issues mainly focused on the issue of immigration, rather than the party’s flagship issue, the EU.
What should be noted, particularly to UKIP activists, is that recent successes in by-elections are not indicative of cultural revolution. Rather, UKIP are being used as a protest vote against main political parties.
Furthermore, while Mr. Farage may like to see himself as somewhat of a moral crusader, he probably represents a public sentiment of ‘anti-politics.’ Yet, even if this analysis is wrong, and UKIP will see large gains in 2015, Mr. Farage should heed some lessons from the Lib Dems. By-elections are one thing, but general elections are far fiercer. He’d do well to drop the showmanship, and create some long term policies.
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