Local Elections in the UK take place tomorrow. In the past week, we've been inundated by analysis, attack pieces and predictions from the gurus of Fleet Street. One point they have all agreed on- The UK Independence Party (UKIP) are likely to do extraordinarily well, and may even secure 100+ seats. Currently, it has less than 10.
To put the current situation in perspective; Over the past few weeks, UKIP has gone under immense criticism concerning its lack of background checking candidates. In the most recent debacle, one of its prominent stars is currently facing heavy fire for a 'Nazi Salute' photo. In addition, Rob Hastings and Nigel Morris of The Independent recently conducted an interview with former treasurer Marta Andreasen concerning the inner workings of UKIP. In a nutshell, she basically states that UKIP is the 'Nigel Farage' show, and that he wouldn't have it any other way. Further, an investigation by The Times [Paywall] indicated that UKIP financial plans (derived from leaving the EU, increasing military spending, decreasing expenditure in public sector etc) would leave a black hole of a further £120bn.
You'd imagine with this amount of heat, that UKIP would capitulate. In fact, they seem to be taking it quite well. On the eve of the election, the party are riding at 22%. That's 10% higher than the Lib Dems, and only 2% less than Labour. Surprisingly, the Tories are doing very well considering the state of the economy and general dissatisfaction with the party, and currently hold 31% of the projected vote.
So why are UKIP being pipped to do so well? The general answer is standard; Local elections are great for protest voting, no-one really cares about them and it represents an apathy in British politics. On the other side, UKIP are seen in many communities as the only party that 'represent' the peoples' view- though mainly on social issues. A large part of this derives from 'The Cult of Nigel', of which in the most depressing way, he actually does seem more human than any cabinet or opposition minister.
In recent days, no better was this shown than in Ed Miliband's interview at Radio 4 last week. He was asked 13 times whether his economic plans required more borrowing, and after adopting an attack line centred on increased Government borrowing, he had no choice but to admit that it would have to be done, at least in the short term. Meanwhile, Osborne and Cameron keep jumping from one ratings agency to another to justify their pseudo-austerity measures, all with lacklustre conviction. I don't even think there's a point considering the Lib Dems. What's clear is that out of all of this, a party with a changed tax policy overnight , and rhetoric that fails to translate into tangible statistics [Home Office PDF] is currently enjoying the free publicity given by an anxious press, and the evident fear vocalised by the senior ministers.
As The Guardian's James Ball notes in a manifesto fact-check , despite UKIP's gains tomorrow, it is unlikely to gain control of any council, and will have little chance to put its manifesto pledges into action. Unlike general elections, local ones are supposed to focus more on practicality and efficiency in delivering services and balancing budgets. The fact that local elections have been pushed into the realm of political ideology is far more damning on existing councils. Perhaps some new members from different parties might shake them up a bit.
The evidence still suggests that UKIP is really the protest vote of the time. With the Lib Dems now extremely unpopular in government, and the BNP basically relinquished, UKIP has filled the void, and it has done a remarkable job at doing so. Its work over the past few years as a vocal opposition party fronted by a charismatic leader will pay off. The challenge that comes next, is whether the elected candidates put words into action, and prove they can be just as good in office, as they supposedly are outside it.
Just for fun:
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